Experts Differ on NCAA National Title Pick
Seems like there are about as many
opinions as to the eventual winner of the NCAA basketball tournament as
predictions regarding the recovery of the stock market. I checked
earlier this week with former Gopher coach Jim Dutcher and he
projected a different winner than the experts on CBS and ESPN who have
five different choices.
Dutcher, who has been an outstanding
commentator on Gopher telecasts for years and follows college basketball
closely, picks Georgetown, the No. 2 seed in the Midwest, to emerge as
the national champion next month when the tournament ends. CBS studio
analysts Seth Davis and Clark Kellogg favor UCLA, No. 1 in
the West. ESPN studio analysts Jay Bilas and Hubert Davis
predict a Kansas national title (No. 1 Midwest). Their colleagues all
have different picks: Dick Vitale chooses North Carolina (No. 1
East); Digger Phelps likes Memphis (No. 1 South);
and Bob Knight makes Pittsburgh, a No. 4 seed in the South, his
choice.
The diverse views are a reminder of the
competitive balance in college basketball, making the exercise of
forecasting a national champion part skill and part luck. “If I had to pick
one team from what I’ve seen, I pick Georgetown,” Dutcher said.
He likes the Hoya’s 7-2 preseason
all-American center Roy Hibbert and the team’s outstanding guard
play. He respects coach John Thompson III and knows that
Georgetown’s deep run in last year’s tournament will likely help this
bunch that has a 27-5 record and plays its opening game tomorrow
(Thursday).
The 64 team field will be down to 16 by
Sunday night and while there are several teams getting at least a
sniff, only the blindly loyal or delusional are picking a Big Ten team.
Wisconsin was impressive, winning both the regular season and tournament
titles. The Badgers operate on brains more than most teams and Dutcher
thinks a talented group that has them down by 10 points puts Wisconsin
in trouble. He believes the Badgers, a No. 3 seed in the Midwest, might
at best make the final 16 teams. “I can’t see them going beyond that,”
he said.
Michigan State is the Big Ten team best built for a
successful tourney run, Dutcher said. The Spartans, who were pre-season
conference favorites, have athletes, size and a “great point guard” in
Drew Neitzel, according to Dutcher who coached the Gophers in two
NCAA tournament games in 1982.
This will be a showcase tournament for
individual talent with Neitzel and a full roster of other stars from
coast to coast. Two of the best are in the same game when USC and guard
O.J. Mayo play tomorrow night (Thursday) against Kansas State and
forward Michael Beasley in a Midwest bracket game. Other
show stoppers include UCLA guard Darren Collison and Bruin center
Kevin Love (phenomenal outlet passer), Notre Dame forward Luke
Harangody, Texas guard D.J. Augustin, Indiana guard Eric
Gordon, Memphis guard Derrick Rose, and North Carolina center
Tyler Hansbrough, a popular choice for player of the year.
Those players will impact the tournament
and so, too, will the game’s never ending love affair with the three
point shot. “I don’t think it’s ever been so obvious, the value of
three point shooters,” Dutcher said. “Teams go out and make
12, 14 (three point shots) and turn around a game.”
The Gophers made 6 of 19 three pointers in
their upset win over Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament last Friday. The
Hoosiers were 1-14 in the 59-58 loss.